Portfolio Owner's Manual · Chapter II
⬡ Small Compounders

PatientCapital,Quiet
Giants

Niche businesses with durable competitive advantages, owner-operator discipline, and long runways for compounding. Not flashy — but the kind of businesses that quietly 10× over a decade while nobody is watching.

What makes a Small Compounder?
A small or mid-cap business with a defensible niche, high returns on capital, disciplined management (often founder-led), and a repeatable growth model — organic expansion, acquisitions, or both. The Chris Mayer "100 Baggers" philosophy in practice. Time horizon: 5–15 years.
23 Holdings · Bagger Tier · 2026
Philosophy
Chris Mayer 100 Baggers — owner-operators, niche moats, long holds
What to look for
ROIC > 15%, recurring revenue, low capital intensity, disciplined M&A
Time horizon
5–15 years minimum. Sizing is small — let compounding do the work
01

VMS & Serial Acquirers

Constellation Software descendants · Roll-up operators · Decentralised compounders

These companies share a common DNA: disciplined acquisition of niche, mission-critical businesses at sensible prices, decentralised management, and relentless reinvestment of cash flow. Several are direct Constellation Software spin-offs or disciples. The thesis is the same in each case — find a great acquirer and let them compound on your behalf.

LMN
Lumine Group
🇨🇦
Toronto, Canada · TSX-V
VMS Software
Technology network
A Constellation Software spin-off acquiring mission-critical vertical market software for communications and media industries
Lumine Group is the CSU playbook applied to a specific vertical: communications and media software. Spun out of Constellation in 2023, it acquires niche VMS businesses — billing systems, network management, broadcast software, subscriber platforms — that are deeply embedded in their customers' operations and face virtually no switching incentive. The decentralised management model mirrors Constellation: acquired companies keep their cultures, leadership, and P&L accountability. Lumine reinvests free cash flow into further acquisitions at attractive returns. Being smaller than CSU means a longer runway — the communications software market is global and fragmented, offering decades of acquisition opportunity at sensible multiples.
Watch These
Organic Revenue GrowthEx-acquisitions — underlying health signal
ROIC on AcquisitionsTarget >15% — capital allocation quality
Acquisition PaceNumber & size of deals annually
Lumine benefits from Constellation's network, methodology, and institutional knowledge. Mark Leonard's team designed the spin-out structure to allow Lumine to operate independently while maintaining cultural continuity. The risk: it is smaller and less proven than CSU. But that's also the opportunity — CSU was once this size.
Conviction: High
TOI
Topicus.com
🇨🇦
Toronto, Canada · TSX-V
VMS Software
Software development
Another Constellation spin-off — acquiring mission-critical vertical software in Europe, with a specific focus on the fragmented Dutch and Nordic markets
Topicus.com was the European arm of Constellation Software, spun out in 2021. It focuses specifically on European VMS acquisitions — a market with thousands of niche software businesses serving local governments, healthcare systems, financial institutions, and specialist industries that have been slow to attract North American roll-up capital. This gives Topicus a less competitive acquisition environment than North America, potentially allowing it to buy quality businesses at more attractive multiples. The Dutch and Nordic markets are the initial strongholds; the pan-European opportunity is large. Like Lumine and CSU, the model is decentralised — buy, improve, retain management, reinvest.
Watch These
European Deal FlowAcquisition count in EU markets
FCF per Share GrowthThe core compounding metric
Margin ImprovementPost-acquisition EBITDA uplift
European VMS markets are more fragmented and less picked-over than North America. Many businesses are family-owned with no succession plan, run on legacy technology, and have never received institutional attention. Topicus can acquire these at 4–6× EBITDA versus 8–12× in North America. If execution matches the CSU template, the return profile is highly attractive.
Conviction: High
CHG
CHAPTERS Group
🇩🇪
Frankfurt, Germany · ETR
Serial Acquirer
European business
A European mini-Constellation building a software and services roll-up using the "Manuscript Method" — elite capital allocators, CSU-inspired discipline
CHAPTERS Group is a German-listed serial acquirer explicitly modelling itself on Constellation Software, pursuing 25–40% annual returns through disciplined M&A and operational improvement via its proprietary "Manuscript Method" — a framework for identifying, acquiring, and improving niche European businesses. The founders and management team have backgrounds in private equity and software, with a stated ambition to build Europe's equivalent of CSU. The target universe: small, profitable, owner-operated software and services companies across DACH and broader Europe, typically with under €20m revenue. Being very early stage makes this higher risk than LMN or TOI, but the ambition is clearly CSU-inspired and the management philosophy is credible.
Watch These
Deal Execution RateAcquisitions per year vs stated targets
ROIC on DealsTarget 25–40% annually — ambitious
Revenue ScaleStill very small — trajectory matters
CHAPTERS is significantly earlier stage than LMN or TOI. Track record is limited, the management team is unproven at this scale, and stated return targets (25–40%) are ambitious. The opportunity is real but the execution risk is high — this is a bet on the jockeys as much as the horse. Size accordingly and monitor discipline on deal multiples closely.
Conviction: Medium
QXO
QXO Inc.
🇺🇸
Greenwich, Connecticut · NYSE
Distribution Roll-Up
Distribution warehouse
Brad Jacobs's eighth company — consolidating the $800bn US building materials distribution market after the $11bn Beacon Roofing acquisition
QXO is a roll-up play on a proven serial entrepreneur. Brad Jacobs has built seven billion-dollar businesses across equipment rental (United Rentals), logistics (XPO, GXO), and freight brokerage (RXO). His playbook: identify a large, fragmented industry; raise capital; acquire the leading player; inject technology and management discipline; continue acquiring; create enormous shareholder value. QXO's target is US building products distribution — a $800bn+ market with no dominant national player. The $11bn Beacon Roofing acquisition transformed QXO from a shell into a $10bn+ revenue platform overnight. Technology differentiation — real-time inventory, AI-driven pricing, digital ordering — is the stated edge over incumbent regional distributors.
Watch These
Acquisition PipelineDeal count and size post-Beacon
EBITDA MarginPost-acquisition improvement — the Jacobs signal
Debt / EBITDARoll-ups use leverage — watch the ratio
The market often prices QXO richly before results materialise — a "Jacobs premium." Building materials distribution has lower technology moats than logistics or equipment rental. The risk: Jacobs doesn't replicate his prior results in this new industry. The opportunity: if he does, the upside from current levels could be transformational. His track record is the entire thesis.
Conviction: High — operator bet
ROKO-B
Röko AB
🇸🇪
Stockholm, Sweden · STO
Nordic Serial Acquirer
Scandinavian business
Fredrik Karlsson's second act — applying the proven Lifco compounding playbook to a new generation of Nordic B2B service acquisitions
Röko is built on pedigree. Fredrik Karlsson was the CEO who transformed Lifco into one of Sweden's most respected compounders — a serial acquirer of niche B2B businesses with exceptional returns on capital and disciplined management. Röko is his second venture applying the identical framework: sector-agnostic acquisitions of profitable, well-managed Nordic SMEs with strong market positions, low capital intensity, and cash generative characteristics. The Lifco blueprint emphasises decentralisation (subsidiaries retain independence), long-hold mentality (no flipping), and management quality above all else. Röko is early-stage relative to Lifco's maturity, which is precisely the opportunity — buying a proven methodology before the track record is fully priced in.
Watch These
EBITA MarginLifco averaged >20% — is Röko matching it?
Acquisition MultiplesPrice discipline — watch for multiple creep
Subsidiary CountPortfolio breadth and pace of growth
Röko carries a "limited data" flag — it is still small and early, with a shorter public track record than Lifco. The bet is entirely on Karlsson replicating his methodology. If Röko follows the Lifco trajectory over 10 years, the return could be exceptional. If execution disappoints or the acquisition environment deteriorates, there is limited margin of safety. Sized small accordingly.
Conviction: Medium — jockey bet, limited data
"Find a great capital allocator and get out of the way."
The serial acquirer model — Constellation, Lifco, Addtech — has produced some of the best long-term returns in equity markets. The common thread: exceptional management discipline, decentralised operations, and a culture of reinvesting cash at high rates of return indefinitely. The best time to own these businesses was always "earlier." The second-best time is now.
02

UK Industrials & Niche Technology

Scientific instruments · RF components · Subsea tech · Fire prevention · Distribution

The UK small-cap market contains some of the most overlooked quality compounders in global equities — niche businesses with dominant market positions, high barriers to entry, and decades of track record operating below the radar of large institutional investors.

JDG
Judges Scientific
🇬🇧
London, UK · AIM
Scientific Instruments
Scientific laboratory
A 20-year track record of acquiring niche UK scientific instrument makers at low multiples and compounding shareholder value at ~25% annually
Judges Scientific is the UK's most compelling micro-cap serial acquirer. Founded in 2002, it acquires small, specialist scientific instrument companies — businesses making things like vacuum gauges, acoustic testing equipment, and electron microscopy accessories — that sell globally to universities, research institutions, and industrial labs. These businesses are deeply niche, have no meaningful competitors in their specific niches, and generate recurring revenue from parts, calibration, and servicing. JDG buys them at an average of ~5× EBIT (range 3–7×), improves margins gently through management best practice, and retains the original teams. Track record over 20+ years: ~25% annualised returns. Market cap is micro — still sub-£400m — meaning it has a long runway before institutional attention distorts pricing.
Watch These
ROIC on AcquisitionsHistorical 15–22% — watch for discipline
Order BookForward visibility — lumpy but a health signal
Acquisition MultiplesMust stay 4–6× EBIT — creep is a red flag
The moat in JDG's subsidiaries is specificity. A company making vacuum gauges for synchrotron particle accelerators has perhaps 50 global customers — but those customers have no viable alternative. Switching costs are infinite because no competitor exists. This extreme niche dominance, multiplied across a growing portfolio, is the foundation of JDG's compounding machine.
Conviction: Very High
FTC
Filtronic plc
🇬🇧
Shipley, West Yorkshire · AIM
RF / mmWave Components
RF technology
A specialist UK manufacturer of radio frequency and millimetre-wave components — now a critical supplier to SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation
Filtronic designs and manufactures bespoke RF and mmWave semiconductor products — the components inside wireless communications systems that transmit and receive signals at specific frequencies. These are highly engineered, performance-critical parts with demanding specifications and long qualification processes. The company serves telecoms infrastructure, defence, and space applications. The transformational development: Filtronic became a supplier to SpaceX for components used in Starlink's ground terminal and satellite systems. A SpaceX partnership for a company of this size is a significant commercial validation — SpaceX's volume and quality requirements are among the most demanding in the industry. Revenue from this relationship could be highly scalable as Starlink expands globally.
Watch These
SpaceX Revenue% of total from Starlink — concentration & opportunity
Order IntakeNew contracts beyond Starlink — diversification
Gross MarginBespoke components should sustain strong margins
The SpaceX relationship is the thesis and the risk simultaneously. If Starlink volumes grow as expected, Filtronic's revenue scales dramatically. But concentration in a single large customer — even SpaceX — creates vulnerability. A design change, supply chain switch, or commercial dispute could materially impact results. Monitor customer diversification alongside Starlink contract renewals.
Conviction: High
AT
Ashtead Technology
🇬🇧
Aberdeen, Scotland · AIM
Subsea Equipment Rental
Offshore subsea
The leading specialist rental company for subsea technology equipment — serving offshore oil, wind, and defence with mission-critical underwater tools
Ashtead Technology rents specialist subsea equipment — remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), underwater cameras, sonar systems, and inspection tools — to offshore oil and gas operators, offshore wind developers, and naval defence. The rental model is capital-efficient and highly scalable: the company owns the equipment and rents it at premium day-rates to customers who need specialist tools for specific projects without capital expenditure. Aberdeen is the global hub for North Sea offshore operations, giving Ashtead structural proximity to its core customer base. The energy transition is a tailwind: offshore wind installation and maintenance requires exactly the kinds of subsea inspection and monitoring tools in which Ashtead specialises. M&A has expanded the portfolio both in products and geographically.
Watch These
Fleet Utilisation% of equipment on hire — efficiency metric
Day RatesRevenue per unit — pricing power signal
Offshore Wind RevenueEnergy transition contribution growing
Equipment rental in niche subsea technology is a structurally attractive model: customers avoid large capital outlays, they get access to up-to-date equipment without obsolescence risk, and Ashtead earns recurring utilisation-based income. The moat is asset breadth (widest subsea rental fleet in its niche) and customer relationships built over decades in Aberdeen's offshore community.
Conviction: High
DPLM
Diploma PLC
🇬🇧
London, UK · LSE Main Market
Technical Distribution
Industrial distribution
A proven quality compounder distributing mission-critical technical products across life sciences, seals, and controls — with high switching costs and consistent double-digit returns
Diploma distributes highly technical, often single-source products across three divisions: Life Sciences (medical devices and diagnostics consumables), Seals (hydraulic and pneumatic seals for industrial equipment), and Controls (electronic and fluid control components for aerospace and industrial). The common thread: Diploma's products are mission-critical but individually low-cost relative to the equipment they go into, creating low price sensitivity and high switching costs. If a hospital relies on Diploma for critical diagnostic consumables, switching supplier is a significant operational risk for minimal cost saving. This dynamic drives sticky customer relationships and pricing power. The acquisition model — buying niche technical distributors at disciplined multiples — has generated consistent 15%+ ROIC for over a decade.
Watch These
Organic Revenue GrowthTarget mid-single digits ex-M&A
ROICHistorically 15%+ — must be maintained
Acquisition PipelineQuality of targets in life sciences & seals
Distribution businesses are often dismissed as low-quality middlemen. Diploma is the opposite — a value-added technical distributor whose specialist knowledge, proprietary relationships with manufacturers, and deep customer integration make it genuinely difficult to displace. The moat grows with every year of entrenched customer relationships and expanded product portfolio.
Conviction: High
CER
Cerillion plc
🇬🇧
London, UK · AIM
Telecom Software
Telecommunications
A high-margin UK software company providing mission-critical billing and CRM systems to telecoms and utilities operators globally
Cerillion provides Business Support Systems (BSS) and Operations Support Systems (OSS) software to telecoms operators and utilities — essentially the billing, customer management, and product catalogue infrastructure that sits at the heart of how these companies operate and charge customers. These systems are deeply embedded: replacing a billing platform for a telecoms operator is a multi-year, multi-million pound project with enormous operational risk. Cerillion's customers don't switch lightly. The result is exceptional financial metrics: 50%+ EBITDA margins, strong recurring revenue, and high cash conversion. The secular tailwind is the global wave of telecoms digital transformation — operators upgrading legacy systems to handle 5G, convergence, and digital-first customer experiences.
Watch These
ARR GrowthAnnual recurring revenue expansion
EBITDA MarginTarget 50%+ — capital-light software quality
New Contract WinsOperator deal announcements — lumpy but significant
A telecoms operator's BSS/OSS stack handles billing for millions of subscribers. Replacing it risks billing errors, revenue leakage, and customer churn — catastrophic outcomes for a regulated utility. This existential risk to the customer creates essentially permanent switching costs for Cerillion. Once deployed, the software becomes permanently embedded. This is the foundation of 50%+ margins in a company of this size.
Conviction: Very High
TEQ
Teqnion AB
🇸🇪
Stockholm, Sweden · STO
Swedish Serial Acquirer
Swedish industry
An emerging Swedish serial acquirer building a diversified portfolio of cash-generative niche industrial businesses — following the Lifco and Addtech playbook
Teqnion is a founder-led Swedish company acquiring niche B2B industrial and technology businesses — the kind of companies making specialised components, providing technical services, or occupying small but defensible market positions across Scandinavia. The Swedish serial acquirer tradition (Lifco, Addtech, Indutrade, Lagercrantz) has produced some of Europe's best long-term equity returns by applying a consistent model: buy at sensible multiples, retain management, improve operations, reinvest free cash flow. Teqnion is early in this journey with a smaller portfolio, which means both higher risk and higher potential upside relative to the already-large Swedish compounders.
Watch These
Acquisition PaceDeals per year — trajectory signal
EBITA MarginTarget 15%+ across portfolio
Organic GrowthUnderlying health of existing subsidiaries
Sweden has produced a disproportionate number of the world's best industrial serial acquirers. The cultural factors: long-term ownership mentality, strong engineering base, disciplined management culture, and deep deal flow from family-owned SMEs seeking succession solutions. Teqnion is early in following this tradition. The reference case is Lifco, which has compounded at ~25% annually for 20+ years from a similar starting point.
Conviction: High
FIRE
Firefly AB
🇸🇪
Stockholm, Sweden · STO
Industrial Fire Prevention
Industrial safety
A 52-year-old Swedish specialist in industrial fire detection and prevention — profitable, debt-free, and winning enterprise contracts against billion-dollar competitors
Firefly AB is a hidden gem. Founded in 1973, the company specialises in automatic fire detection and suppression systems for industrial processes — the kind of environments where conventional smoke detectors are useless (sawmills, biomass plants, grain silos, recycling facilities, lithium battery manufacturing). Firefly's systems use infrared and UV optical detection with response times measured in milliseconds. After 52 years, the company has accumulated the third-party certifications, technical reputation, and global distributor network that new entrants would need decades to replicate. It wins contracts against enormous competitors — Honeywell, Siemens, Johnson Controls — by outperforming on technical specification. It is profitable, debt-free, and highly cash generative.
Watch These
Order Book GrowthNew industrial safety contracts — leading indicator
EBIT MarginHigh-margin specialist — should sustain 15%+
EV Battery SectorLi-ion fire risk is a structural new market
Industrial fire safety equipment requires extensive third-party certification (FM Global, UL, ATEX) and passing rigorous testing across multiple hazardous environments. Firefly has accumulated these over five decades — a new entrant would take 10–15 years to achieve equivalent certification breadth. The EV battery manufacturing sector is an emerging growth market for Firefly: lithium-ion battery fires are one of the most difficult industrial fire scenarios, and Firefly's optical detection is well-suited to early detection in these environments.
Conviction: High
03

Financial Services

Asset management · BNPL fintech · Accounting roll-ups

TAM
Tatton Asset Management
🇬🇧
London, UK · AIM
UK DFM Platform
Asset management
The UK's leading managed portfolio service platform for financial advisers — a capital-light compounder growing at 20%+ with 50%+ margins
Tatton is the UK's largest independent discretionary fund manager (DFM) by number of adviser relationships, providing managed portfolio services (MPS) to IFAs who outsource the investment management of their clients' money. It's a B2B2C model with powerful network effects: as more advisers join, Tatton's scale improves pricing and performance, attracting more advisers. The regulatory environment is a structural tailwind — post-RDR rules require advisers to evidence their investment choices, pushing them toward outsourced DFM solutions rather than managing portfolios themselves. Tatton benefits from AUM that grows both through net new money and market returns, creating a naturally compounding revenue base. 50%+ EBITDA margins reflect the capital-light software-like economics of an asset management platform.
Watch These
AUM GrowthTotal assets under management — the core metric
Net New MoneyInflows ex-market returns — organic growth quality
Adviser CountNetwork breadth — distribution moat
Post-RDR (Retail Distribution Review) regulation requires UK financial advisers to justify their investment recommendations with documented evidence. This has driven a structural shift from advisers managing their own model portfolios to outsourcing to MPS providers like Tatton. The regulatory pressure to outsource is ongoing, and Tatton's dominant position in the IFA DFM market makes it the primary beneficiary of this multi-decade structural trend.
Conviction: High
SEZL
Sezzle Inc.
🇺🇸
Minneapolis, Minnesota · NASDAQ
BNPL / Consumer Finance
Fintech payments
The profitable outlier in BNPL — Sezzle reached profitability ahead of Afterpay and Klarna while maintaining strong double-digit revenue growth and best-in-class unit economics
Sezzle is a buy-now-pay-later platform operating in North American e-commerce, allowing consumers to split purchases into interest-free instalments while merchants pay a fee for the conversion boost. What differentiates Sezzle from the cautionary tales in BNPL (Affirm's losses, Afterpay's write-downs) is that it reached genuine profitability ahead of larger competitors while still growing at 60%+ annually. The unit economics are best-in-class: strong net transaction margins, low charge-off rates (reflecting superior credit underwriting), and a platform with growing merchant network effects. BNPL is becoming embedded e-commerce infrastructure — a payment method at checkout rather than a niche product. Sezzle is positioned as a potential consolidation target or standalone scaled player.
Watch These
Net Transaction MarginRevenue minus credit losses — the key spread
GMV GrowthGross merchandise volume — scale indicator
Charge-off RateCredit quality — must stay low in downturns
Sezzle was previously in the RISK/speculation tier. It has been upgraded to bagger because it has demonstrated genuine profitability and sustainable unit economics — a rare achievement in BNPL. The thesis has substantially de-risked. The remaining uncertainty is competitive intensity (Klarna, Afterpay, Affirm are well-capitalised) and macro sensitivity of consumer credit quality. Sized accordingly at a small-to-mid bagger position.
Conviction: High — thesis de-risked
KPG
Kelly Partners Group
🇦🇺
Sydney, Australia · ASX
Accounting Roll-Up
Professional services
A founder-led serial acquirer of accounting firms using the "Partner-Owner-Driver" model — now expanding into the 10× larger US market
Kelly Partners Group acquires accounting firms across Australia using a distinctive model: the "Partner-Owner-Driver" approach, where acquired firm principals retain meaningful equity stakes alongside KPG, aligning incentives and retaining talent. This solves the endemic problem in professional services consolidation — walking away of key people post-acquisition. The result: acquired firm revenue and profitability typically improves significantly post-acquisition (management's stated track record) of joining KPG. The Australian market is the proven base; the strategic opportunity is the United States, a market roughly ten times the size of Australia in accounting revenues, similarly fragmented, and largely untapped by systematic roll-up capital. Early US expansion is underway.
Watch These
US Acquisition ProgressFirm count and revenue in North America
Revenue per PartnerProfitability of the partner model
Post-Acquisition EBITDADoes the doubling thesis hold in practice?
US accounting is a $150bn+ market dominated by the Big Four and a long tail of independent firms. No serial acquirer has cracked the mid-market at scale. If KPG's Partner-Owner-Driver model translates to the US as effectively as Australia, the addressable market is transformational relative to its current size. Early evidence from US acquisitions will be the critical validation signal in the next 2–3 years.
Conviction: High
04

Grid, Energy & Infrastructure

Smart grid software · Industrial manufacturing · Marine technology

GRID
Tantalus Systems
🇨🇦
Vancouver, Canada · TSX
Smart Grid Software
Power grid infrastructure
Providing electric utilities a cost-effective smart grid platform that upgrades infrastructure without replacing existing meters — riding the multi-decade grid modernisation wave
Tantalus Systems sells software and hardware platforms to electric utilities that need to modernise their grids for the age of distributed energy resources — solar panels, EV chargers, battery storage — without the cost of ripping out existing infrastructure. The TRUSense Gateway is the key product: it converts legacy meters into smart, data-capable devices at a fraction of the cost of full meter replacement. This dramatically lowers the barrier for utilities to modernise. The business model is transitioning toward SaaS — recurring software subscriptions on top of the installed hardware base — improving revenue quality and predictability. Structural tailwinds: every utility in the world needs to modernise for EVs, solar, and grid resilience. Tantalus addresses this without requiring wholesale infrastructure replacement.
Watch These
SaaS Revenue %Recurring software mix — quality shift
Utility Customer WinsNew utility contracts — each is high-value long-term
ARR GrowthAnnual recurring revenue trajectory
The IEA estimates $1 trillion+ of annual grid investment is needed globally through 2050 to support the energy transition. Tantalus operates in a tiny fraction of this — but the addressable opportunity for smart grid communication infrastructure in North America alone is many multiples of its current revenue. The risk: it is a small company in a market where large players (Itron, Landis+Gyr) also compete. Its edge is the non-replacement approach — cheaper, faster, lower risk for utilities.
Conviction: High
TVK
TerraVest Industries
🇨🇦
Calgary, Canada · TSX-V
Industrial Manufacturing
Industrial manufacturing
A diversified Canadian industrial manufacturer focused on energy storage, heating equipment, and pressure vessels — a quiet compounder with a disciplined M&A track record
TerraVest Industries manufactures industrial products across three segments: heating products (furnaces, boilers for residential and commercial markets), energy services (processing equipment for oil and gas), and transportation (propane and anhydrous ammonia tank trailers). These are unsexy, essential products with stable demand, modest competition, and consistent free cash flow generation. TerraVest has applied a disciplined acquisition strategy — buying niche industrial manufacturers at sensible multiples and improving their operations — that has produced strong returns on invested capital over time. The management team has significant equity ownership, aligning incentives tightly with shareholders. This is a classic small industrial compounder — not transformational, but reliably compounding.
Watch These
EBITDA MarginConsistent industrial margins — efficiency signal
Acquisition ReturnsROIC on new industrial purchases
FCF ConversionCash generation quality — key for roll-ups
TerraVest operates in industries with no hype — propane tanks, furnaces, industrial pressure vessels. This is precisely the point. Low analyst coverage, low institutional interest, and consistent free cash flow create the conditions for long-term compounding without the valuation excess that afflicts high-profile growth stories. Management ownership is high; incentives are aligned; capital is allocated patiently. Classic Mayer 100 Baggers territory.
Conviction: High
NORBT
Norbit ASA
🇳🇴
Trondheim, Norway · FRA / Oslo
Marine & Connectivity Tech
Marine technology
A Norwegian technology group providing tailored solutions across oceans, connectivity, and product realisation — spanning sonar, satellite IoT, and semiconductor design services
Norbit is a diversified Norwegian technology company operating across three segments. Oceans: high-resolution sonar systems for hydrographic surveying, subsea inspection, and autonomous underwater vehicles — products sold to navies, port authorities, offshore energy companies, and research institutions. Connectivity: satellite IoT solutions enabling asset tracking and remote monitoring in locations beyond cellular coverage — fishing vessels, pipelines, remote infrastructure. Product Realisation: ASIC design services and electronics manufacturing for third-party customers, providing an R&D revenue stream. The combination creates a technology business with genuine cross-segment synergies: Norbit's sonar technology feeds directly into the autonomous underwater vehicle market, while its electronics capabilities support both internal product development and external clients.
Watch These
Oceans RevenueSonar systems — highest margin segment
Connectivity GrowthSatellite IoT — fastest growing segment
Defence Contract WinsNaval sonar — structural tailwind
Autonomous underwater vehicles are one of the fastest-growing segments in defence and commercial marine operations. Norbit's high-resolution sonar systems are a critical enabling technology for AUVs — you cannot navigate or survey underwater without sonar. As navies and energy companies expand AUV fleets, demand for Norbit's Oceans segment grows structurally. This is a small, overlooked Norwegian company at the intersection of multiple structural megatrends.
Conviction: High
05

Digital Services & Software

Government digital transformation · AI data engineering · Broadcast technology · Reservoir simulation

KNOS
Kainos Group
🇬🇧
Belfast, Northern Ireland · LSE
Digital Services
Digital government services
A Belfast-born FTSE 250 digital technology company — the UK government's trusted digital transformation partner and Europe's largest Workday implementation specialist
Kainos operates across three divisions. Digital Services: building custom digital platforms for UK government departments (DVLA, DWP, NHS) and commercial clients — the actual code behind public-facing government digital services. Workday Services: Europe's largest boutique Workday implementation partner, helping organisations deploy Workday's HR, finance, and planning software. Workday Products: proprietary testing, audit, and data tools that complement Workday deployments and generate recurring revenue independent of implementation cycles. The NHS relationship is particularly significant: Kainos's Evolve platform is the UK market leader for digitising patient records in acute hospitals. Founded in Belfast in 1986, the company has compounded strongly since listing in 2015.
Watch These
Workday Services RecoveryDemand after subdued FY25 — the swing factor
Products RevenueRecurring SaaS layer — highest quality revenue
NHS ContractsGovernment digital pipeline — structural demand
The UK government's push to digitise public services is a multi-decade programme with no credible alternative delivery partner at Kainos's scale for certain mission-critical systems. The risk is Workday market saturation — as the installed base matures, implementation revenue naturally declines and must be replaced by products and adjacent services. Kainos is managing this transition actively. Recent NHS England restructuring creates short-term uncertainty but not structural damage to the healthcare digital opportunity.
Conviction: High
INOD
Innodata Inc.
🇺🇸
Ridgefield Park, New Jersey · NASDAQ
AI Data Engineering
Data engineering AI
A data engineering company that pivoted into AI training data preparation — now serving the hyperscalers building the world's most powerful AI models
Innodata has been a data services company since 1988, historically providing content digitisation, data entry, and annotation services. The pivot: as generative AI exploded, the hunger for high-quality training data became immense. Innodata repositioned as an AI data engineering specialist — preparing, cleaning, labelling, and enriching the vast datasets that foundation model builders need to train and fine-tune large language models. Its customers include several of the world's largest AI labs and technology companies. The company has gone from a niche outsourcing provider to a direct participant in the AI infrastructure supply chain. The question is whether this represents a durable structural repositioning or a cyclical opportunity tied to the current AI training boom.
Watch These
AI Revenue % of TotalRepositioning completeness — structural vs cyclical
Customer ConcentrationHyperscaler dependency — key risk metric
Revenue Growth RateQuarterly trajectory of AI data services
Innodata's bull case rests on the AI training data market remaining large and labour-intensive enough to sustain a specialist data engineering firm at scale. The risk: as AI models improve, they increasingly generate and annotate their own training data, reducing the need for human-assisted data preparation. This is a genuine long-term threat. Near-term, the demand from foundation model builders is real and growing. Monitor AI revenue diversification beyond a small number of hyperscaler relationships.
Conviction: Medium — thesis still maturing
EVS
EVS Broadcast Equipment
🇧🇪
Liège, Belgium · Euronext Brussels
Broadcast Technology
Broadcast production
The global standard for live sports broadcast production — every major sporting event you watch on television runs on EVS systems
EVS Broadcast Equipment is the dominant supplier of live video production systems to broadcast companies, production houses, and sports rights holders worldwide. When you watch a slow-motion replay during a football match, a cricket highlight, or an Olympics event — the replay system is almost certainly EVS. The company's XT-VIA and XStore systems are the industry standard for live sports production, offering ultra-low-latency replay, highlight creation, and multi-channel management. EVS is a genuinely niche monopoly: the live broadcast production market is not large enough to attract well-capitalised competition, but is mission-critical to its customers, who are the world's largest broadcasters. Revenue has a cyclical element (major sports event years like Olympics and World Cups are strong), but the underlying installed base and maintenance contracts provide stability.
Watch These
Sports Event CalendarOlympics/World Cup years drive upgrade cycles
Cloud/IP TransitionMigration from hardware to SaaS broadcast
EBIT MarginTarget 20%+; above 25% in strong event years
The broadcast industry is transitioning from dedicated hardware infrastructure to IP-based and cloud-native production workflows. EVS is navigating this transition — its MediaHub and cloud products are positioning it for the software era of broadcast. If it executes, the recurring revenue mix improves and the business becomes less capital-intensive. If incumbents like Grass Valley or cloud-native startups displace EVS in the transition, the installed base moat erodes. A critical technology inflection to monitor closely.
Conviction: High
CMG
Computer Modelling Group
🇨🇦
Calgary, Canada · TSX Monitor
Energy Software
⚙️
A niche Canadian software company operating in a reservoir simulation duopoly — a distressed valuation story requiring execution on a difficult business transformation
Computer Modelling Group builds reservoir simulation software used by oil and gas companies to model subsurface hydrocarbon behaviour — essentially the digital twin of an oil field. It operates in a genuine duopoly with Halliburton's Landmark division, giving it significant pricing power in normal conditions. The challenge: the energy transition is pressuring demand as oil and gas capex shifts, and CMG has experienced 15–17% organic revenue decline. The response is a transformation strategy — pivoting toward energy transition applications (carbon sequestration modelling, geothermal) and expanding through acquisitions. Valuation is distressed at 3.5× revenue and 6.5× FCF, with a 98% contract renewal rate suggesting the core customer base remains loyal. This is a turnaround watch, not a straightforward compounder.
Watch These
Organic Revenue TrendIs the 15–17% decline stabilising?
Renewal RateMust hold at 98%+ — the core moat signal
Energy Transition WinsNew CCS / geothermal contracts — pivot validation
CMG was previously flagged as an exit candidate. It remains a monitored position — not a conviction add. The 98% contract renewal rate means the software is genuinely sticky, and the duopoly position in reservoir simulation is real. If the energy transition pivot succeeds and revenue stabilises, the current distressed valuation offers significant upside. If organic decline continues and the transformation fails, the thesis is broken and the position should be exited. Watch the next two annual results carefully.
Conviction: Low — monitor only
Chapter II Summary · Small Compounders at a Glance
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